Monday, March 23, 2009

Global Trade will Drop by 9% in 2009



by Pin-Yu Liao


According to WTO, global trade will fall by 9% this year, and this downturn has been the most deteriorating since the World War II. The developed countries will perceive the fall to be at 10%, while the developing countries, which are trade dependent, will estimate the drop of imports and exports by 2-3%.
It is said that the trade is shrinking faster than output. It is abnormal, since the trade flows quicker than production. The negative growth leads to another consequence-the job loss related to trade.
In discussing the potential solution to the slowdown of trade, WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy commented, “Governments must avoid making this bad situation worse by reverting to protectionist measures which in reality protect no nation and threaten the loss of more jobs.”
The financial crisis has been the cause for sluggish growth of trade, when some business is out of credit and unable to pay off its debts.
Even China, one of the most dominant trading exporters in the world, suffered from recession and slow global trade.
While some trading partners were enduring sluggish imports and exports, some Asian economies such as China, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam have shown positive import growth. The USA recorded the 2.17 trillion of imported goods, even though its import went down by 4%.

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